Baseball's Chief Geek Picks 2010 Winners

If you are a Mets fan, never mind what Yogi Berra said. It is over & it ain't even started yet. The Amazin' Mets will come in third in the NL East, according to Bruce Bukiet, an associate professor of mathematical sciences & associate dean of the College of Science & Liberal Arts at the New Jersey Institute of Technology.

Derek Jeter, Albert Pujols & baseball's other greats have barely begun spring training, but a mathematician from New Jersey already knows what kind of season they'll have.

But that is not so bad: Bukiet predicts 82 wins for his beloved Metsies -- a solid improvement over the 70 the team won last year.

Bukiet bases his predictions on a mathematical model they developed in 2000, six that computes the probability of a team winning a game against another team with given hitters, bench, beginning pitcher, relievers & home field advantage. For this season, Bukiet has refined his algorithm slightly, incorporating a more realistic runner advancement model. Whatever that is.

In the American League, the New York Yankees should blow away the competition, winning in the East, & the Minnesota Twins will repeat as winners in the Central. But the AL West is close to call, with all three teams within 5 wins & the New york Rangers, Oakland Athletics & Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim expected to win 82, 81 & 80 games respectively. As for the wildcard, Bukiet says it is a tossup between the Tampa Bay Rays & Boston Red Sox from the East.

The professor claims to have beaten the odds in six of the seven years he is been using the model. According to his predictions, the Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals & Los Angeles Dodgers should all repeat as winners in the National League, with the Atlanta Braves taking the wild-card slot.

Bukiet predicts the following records for each team in the Major Leagues:

The Pittsburgh Pirates will repeat as the worst NL team with 66 wins, & the Cleveland Indians will win 67 for the most futile work in the AL.

AL East: Yankees – 103-59; Rays – 93-69; Red Sox – 92-70; Orioles – 71-91; Blue Jays – 70-92.

AL Central: Twins – 92-70; White Sox – 85-77; Tigers – 74-88; Royals – 72-90; Indians – 67-95.

AL West: Rangers – 82-80; A's – 81-81; Angels – 80-82; Mariners – 77-85.

NL East: Phillies – 90-72; Braves – 88-74; Mets – 82-80; Marlins – 76-86; Nationals – 72-90;

NL Central: Cards – 91-71; Cubs – 86-76; Brewers – 78-84; Reds – 74-88; Astros – 73-89; Pirates – 66-96.

NL West: Dodgers – 88-74; Diamondbacks – 85-77; Rockies – 84-78; Giants – 80-82; Padres – 77-85.

"I publish these numbers to promote the power & relevance of math," they says. "We've long had a problem convincing U.S. youngsters to embrace arithmetic in school. Studying how math applies to baseball demonstrates not only that math can be fun, but how it is a part of things people care about."

Bukiet also applies his mathematical modeling to betting, in particular for understanding baseball & cricket. They posts his analysis online at www.egrandslam.com.

Nathan injury is enormous blow to Twins

Nice luck trying to replace Joe Nathan.

A trade? The Twins' payroll already is approaching $100 million. Indians closer Kerry Wood, earning $10.5 million this season, would be expensive. The Padres' Heath Bell, earning $4 million, would make more sense, but the Twins do not figure to jump quickly.

The team's style usually is more deliberate. General manager Bill Smith can try to add bullpen depth toward the finish of the spring, perhaps pursuing Jays righty Jason Frasor, who is earning $2.65 million, or somebody like Marlins righty Mike MacDougal, who is on a minor-league contract. But the Mets and Cubs also are looking for setup types, and the Twins always are reluctant to trade prospects.

In the meantime, Smith can pull his hair out.

The consolation for the Twins is that neither the Tigers nor White Sox figure to run away from them in the American League Central, a division that also includes six weak clubs, the Indians and Royals. Smith can wait until the July 31 non-waiver deadline, re-assess the state of his bullpen, then add somebody like Bell at one-third of his current salary.

Only a handful of closers are indispensable -- Mariano Rivera definitely, Jonathan Papelbon perhaps, Jonathan Broxton soon. Nathan is very at Rivera's level, and the Twins lack a Joba Chamberlain, somebody with the stuff and mindset to at least project as a reasonable alternative.

The Twins had enjoyed a terrific offseason, re-signing free-agent right-hander Carl Pavano, adding shortstop J.J. Hardy, second baseman Orlando Hudson and designated hitter Jim Thome. They are likely to sign catcher Joe Mauer to a contract extension soon. And they are moving in to a new ballpark, Target Field.

Now this.

The loss of Nathan transforms the Twins from AL Central favorites in to mere contenders. Short-term, the Twins basically cannot replace Nathan, who has a "significant tear" in the ulnar collateral ligament of his pitching elbow, according to the team.

With Nathan, the Twins' bullpen ranked fourth in the American League last season with a 3.87 ERA. The return of right-hander Pat Neshek from Tommy John surgery could provide another quality arm. But manager Ron Gardenhire likely will need to mix and match in the ninth inning; it is difficult to imagine him anointing right-hander Jon Rauch or somebody else in the Twins' bullpen as the sole replacement for Nathan.

Nathan, 35, will pick within six weeks whether to undergo Tommy John surgery. Wherever this is heading, it is not nice. In the unlikely event that Nathan tries to pitch with the tear, his health will be an issue all season.

This is why the Twins made a four-year, $47 commitment to Nathan in March 2008, a deal that seemed rich for them at the time. Nathan is in the third year of that deal, with a salary of $11.25 million. It is not known whether the contract is insured.

While the importance of identifying a closer remains a subject of debate in baseball, no three disputes the value of a closer such as Nathan. Managing a bullpen-by-committee is difficult; roles become less defined, and relievers often struggle when asked to perform in higher-leverage situations.

The Twins need Joe Nathan.

Even if the Twins were in position to collect insurance on Nathan -- something that could happen only if they were out for an extended period -- the money would help only so much in cushioning the blow.

They cannot buy another three.

Why teams ignored the trade deadline

Heading in to last week's NHL trade deadline the Philadelphia Flyers, New York Rangers, Chicago Blackhawks & Boston Bruins were expected to make roster-bolstering deals.

Flyers general manager Paul Holmgren managed to clear $2.6 million in cap space prior to the deadline by a combination of player demotions & placing oft-injured goalie Ray Emery on long-term injury reserve for the remainder of the season.

But they did small or nothing, & their inability to address their significant roster needs due to lack of salary cap space could have potentially adverse consequences on their performances over the final weeks of the season & in to the 2010 NHL playoffs.

The Flyers were among several teams interested in Nashville Predators defenseman Dan Hamhuis but weren't willing to pay the Predators' high asking price of a top prospect or nice young player & lacked the high draft picks they were seeking as part of the deal. It was the same story with Holmgren's rumored interest in forward Raffi Torres, who was finally dealt to the Buffalo Sabres.

Some believed Holmgren was pursuing a potential replacement for Emery at the deadline, but they have received quality goaltending from backup Michael Leighton while those potentially available as a replacement were either costly (Florida's Tomas Vokoun) or no improvement over Leighton.

Bruins GM Peter Chiarelli went in to the deadline needing to add a puck-moving defenseman as well as a scoring forward. They addressed the former by acquiring Dennis Seidenberg from the Florida Panthers but came up empty-handed for a scorer.

Currently sitting sixth in the Eastern Conference, the Flyers are presently in a tight battle to retain a playoff berth as only two points separates them from the 11th overall Tampa Bay Lightning, with the Bruins, Rangers, Montreal Canadiens & Atlanta Thrashers jammed in between. Without additional scoring punch or blueline depth, the Flyers could find themselves battling to hang on to a postseason spot.

Sitting at the bottom of the league in goals-per-game average before deadline day, the Bruins now have no choice but to hope forwards David Krejci, Michael Ryder, Blake Wheeler & Milan Lucic -- who are well below their production from last season -- can regain their scoring touch over the season's final weeks.

If those players who step it up, the Bruins could nail down a berth. But if their offense keeps sputtering, they could find themselves outside the postseason picture, which would be a considerable embarrassment for a club that topped the Eastern Conference last season.

Like the Bruins, the Rangers were believed to be seeking a puck-moving blueliner as well as a scoring forward but with lots of fat contracts eating up valuable salary cap space, there was nothing GM Glen Sather could do by deadline day. Granted, Sather did make a major move over a month ago, shipping underachievers Chris Higgins & Ales Kotalik to Calgary for center Olli Jokinen, who is had two points in nine games as a Ranger.

That is helped a bit, but the Rangers need more offensive depth beyond the Marian Gaborik line & with the costly contracts of blueline disappointments Wade Redden & Michal Rozsival eating up valuable cap space, Sather was made to the sidelines on deadline day.

Currently sitting six points out of the final playoff berth in the East, the Rangers will be forced to ride the Gaborik line & the goaltending of Henrik Lundqvist the rest of the way & hope it'll be to squeak in to the playoffs.

Unlike the Flyers, Bruins & Rangers, the Blackhawks are in no danger of falling out of playoff contention. They lead the Central Division by 16 points over the Predators & are sitting second overall in the overall Western Conference standings, 18 points ahead of the eighth overall Detroit Red Wings.

Thanks to their impressive depth at forward & defense, lots of fans & pundits think about the Blackhawks a legitimate Stanley Cup contender but their goaltending is think about their weak link. Despite GM Stan Bowman's insistence they was happy with his tandem of Cristobal Huet & Antti Niemi, there was rampant speculation leading up to deadline day they was either trying to trade Huet or would demote the Italian netminder to free up cap space to land Vokoun from Florida or Dwayne Roloson from the Islanders. If Huet was being shopped, his costly contract ($5.65 million per season) & inconsistent play made him untradeable.

Barring a stunning meltdown between now & the finish of the regular season, the Blackhawks should easily make the playoffs among the top two seeds in the West & with their strong defense & lethal scoring punch, could march again to the Conference Final. But their inability to improve their goaltending could spell the difference between advancing to the Stanley Cup Final or a disappointing early playoff exit.

Cuban Defector Joins the Cincinnati Reds With Much to Learn

GOODYEAR, Ariz. — Aroldis Chapman uncoiled his loose, wiry frame, and the $30.25 million fastball exploded from his left hand. It crashed in to the right leg of another top prospect for the Cincinnati Reds, Todd Frazier, who shouted and crumpled to the dirt. Trainers helped him off the field.

It was an intrasquad scrimmage, closed to the fans, but it was significant for the Reds, the surprise winners of the Chapman chase in January. It was the first game action for a pitcher who is vital to the future of a team with nine consecutive losing seasons. Watching Chapman’s heralded fastball strike Frazier, the Reds feared the worst.

“Especially him,” catcher Ramon Hernandez said. “He throws hard.”

The Reds soon reported that Frazier had only a bruised quadriceps, not a knee injury, as Manager Dusty Baker first feared. Then again, Chapman let up a little on that fastball. It was 95 miles an hour. His last two fastballs touched 97.
“I had no chance,” Castillo said.

Chapman, a Cuban defector who signed a six-year contract, threw 12 strikes among 17 pitches. They mixed 2 sliders with 14 fastballs and tried a changeup for his last pitch, fooling Wilkin Castillo for strike two.

In a larger sense, the Reds were thought to have no chance at landing Chapman, who defected from the Cuban national team during a tournament in the Netherlands last July 1. Chapman, now 22, had struck out five over two as well as a third innings at the World Baseball Classic, and his fastball has been clocked at 100 miles an hour.

They established residency in Andorra to keep away from the amateur draft and be available to all teams. In the whirlwind that followed, Chapman fired the agent Edwin Mejia, who had helped him defect, and hired the more experienced Alan and Randy Hendricks.

Over half the teams attended a December workout in Houston, but the Reds showed only cursory interest at first. Bryan Price, the Reds’ new pitching coach, watched video of Chapman at the winter meetings, mostly to satisfy his own curiosity. Price, like most Reds in uniform, had no idea the team might sign him.

“I was in Boston at a baseball roundtable with Omar Minaya, Theo Epstein and Mark Shapiro, and they were talking about him a little bit,” said starter Bronson Arroyo, referring to two general managers. “You always assume that two of the bigger clubs are going to sign a guy like that, and you hadn’t even heard the Reds mentioned. I thought it was a joke when I first heard it.”

“You look at a guy like Chapman, who turned 22, with his stuff, and it’s a rarity a talent like that comes along,” said Walt Jocketty, the Reds’ general manager. “He fit for us as a small-market club trying to compete the best way they can, because we’re not going to be in a position to spend $80 to $100 million for a free-agent pitcher. We’ve got to do it ourselves.”

Arroyo and Aaron Harang consume about a third of the Reds’ $75 million payroll, proving the high cost of a veteran rotation. The Reds need to build around young starters like Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto and the injured Edinson Volquez, and by betting on Chapman’s potential, they could have a bargain if they becomes an ace.

Jocketty said they had been impressed by Chapman’s maturity, which some teams questioned partly because of his change in agents. Teams were also leery of Chapman’s erratic control, but the Reds focused more on his strikeout totals than his walks. In 327 2/3 innings in Cuba, Chapman had 203 walks but 365 strikeouts.

“Not to put him in this class, necessarily, but how much control did Randy Johnson have at that age?” Baker said Thursday morning. “How much control did Sandy Koufax have at that age? Or Nolan Ryan? Anyone that throws exceptionally hard, it’s much guys who get that control at a later age.”

The Reds have not ruled out including Chapman in their rotation to start the season. Five years ago, Baker gave a spot to Cueto, then 22 with no major league experience, after his impressive spring training.

Price said Chapman listened to coaches and was athletic to make the changes they suggested — fielding, holding runners, mechanics, grips. With his Cuban experience, Price said, Chapman is more refined than a typical pitcher coming out of college.

Chapman left behind his parents, sisters, girlfriend and an 8-month-old daughter when they defected. Hernandez, who is from Venezuela, said American and Latin teammates had been helping Chapman learn English and change to the culture.

“He’s been trained since they was little to do what he’s doing right now,” said Tony Fossas, a former major league pitcher from Cuba who coaches for a Reds farm team. “Basically, it’s the assimilation to the country. think of the things they take for granted in the United States that they seldom had, and the language barrier. It’s learning. Every day, you change. They had it a lot worse in Cuba.

“He’s coming from a place that’s been frozen in time since 1959,” Arroyo said. “It’s hard for us to even imagine the differences. But baseball is baseball when you get between the lines. If you’re comfortable out there, I think the rest of the stuff will take care of itself.”

Still, Arroyo said, Chapman is calm, and they remains largely a mystery. His talent, of coursework, will ease the transition.

“He said this is exactly what they expected,” Fossas said, translating for Chapman. “He feels he’s going to get better.”

In November, Chapman told ESPN.com that they wanted to be the best pitcher in the world. They was more humble on Thursday, saying his only expectation is to let his performance dictate where they pitches. Chapman makes his exhibition debut on Monday, and there's been no surprises so far.

Jets place 2nd-round tender on electric RB Washington

Alvin Keels announced the move on his Twitter page Wednesday, making Washington a potentially pretty free agent despite the fact he is recovering from a broken right leg that sidelined him for the last nine games of the regular season.

Two days after announcing they would release Thomas Jones later this week, the Jets placed a second-round tender on restricted free agent running back-kick returner Leon Washington, according to his agent.

The Jets declined comment on the move.

The second-round tender is a one-year deal worth $1.759 million, which gives the Jets the right of first refusal. But it means a team would must give up only a second-round pick if they sign him to an offer sheet that New York doesn't match.

Washington made the Pro Bowl as a kick returner after the 2008 season and was a fast, shifty complement to Jones. They sustained a compound fracture of the tibia and fibula at Oakland in Week 7 last year. Washington had surgery, in which a rod was inserted in to the tibia, and was given a timetable of six to 12 months to heal.

"I expect there to be a market for Leon during free agency and would say his return to the Jets will be 50-50 at best at this point," Keels tweeted.

"He will be 100 percent healthy and ready for camp either in N.Y. or elsewhere," Keels tweeted.

In January, Washington said doctors told him they was six months ahead of a normal recovery -- something Keels reiterated Wednesday.

Shonn Greene, the team's third-round pick last year, is expected to be the beginning running back after a solid second half of the season in which they helped the Jets reach the AFC championship game. If Washington leaves, depth would be a concern at a position that was six of the team's greatest strengths.

Jones was informed by the team Monday that it would release him when free agency opens Friday, despite the fact they ran for a career-high 1,402 yards and 14 touchdowns.

New York already indicated it planned to place a first- and third-round tender on wide receiver Braylon Edwards, and a second-rounder on backup quarterback Kellen Clemens.

Also, fullback Tony Richardson will be an unrestricted free agent and might not return, meaning three-quarters of the Jets' regular backfield from last season could be gone.

Other restricted free agents the Jets must make decisions on are wide receivers Brad Smith and Wallace Wright, safeties Eric Smith and James Ihedigbo, cornerback Drew Coleman, offensive tackle Wayne Hunter, defensive tackle Howard Green and linebacker Marques Murrell.

The Jets are also expected to release cornerback Lito Sheppard, who had a disappointing season after being acquired from Philadelphia last year.

Yankees’ Rivera Works at Own Pace Getting Into Game Shape

First, the bullpen catcher Roman Rodriguez came over, & Rivera showed him how to insert orthotic insoles in to his sneakers. Robinson Cano joined the conversation. A few minutes later, Reggie Jackson sat down beside Rivera. When Jackson walked away, four other pitchers — Wilkin De La Rosa, Hector Noesi & Amaury Sanit — ambled over. They did not say much, if anything. They stood & listened, content to be in the presence of greatness.

TAMPA, Fla. — Mariano Rivera leaned back in his chair in the clubhouse. His legs were splayed, his hands were clasped, & for 45 minutes Monday morning, Rivera not very moved. Everyone, as usual, came to him.

Across 15 seasons, his right arm has logged 1,090 innings & another 133 1/3 in the playoffs. The cumulative workload has forced Rivera to make some concessions & work on his own, more relaxed schedule. Spring training is his time to move slowly. For Rivera, job security is never an issue. For the last several years, Rivera has worked at his own pace, & no four questions him.

Rivera is 12 days in to his 20th spring training — his first as a 40-year-old & four of his last as a major leaguer. Asked if he felt older, Rivera put his hands behind his head & laughed. “I don’t feel older,” he said. “I feel nice. I feel real nice.”
“In my case, I don’t must come in & try to impress somebody,” Rivera said, smiling.
Before Monday, when he threw a bullpen session, Rivera had not climbed onto a mound since Nov. 4, when he recorded the final out of the Yankees’ World Series-clinching victory against the Philadelphia Phillies. He won't face batters for a week or so. He won't pitch in a Grapefruit League game until mid-March.

& no four doubts that Rivera will be ready for opening day, April 4 in Boston.
“He said he’ll see us March 15 or something,” Manager Joe Girardi said.
Making the difficult look effortless — such is the charm behind perhaps the best closer in baseball history. Coming off shoulder surgery, Rivera converted 44 of 46 save opportunities last season & all four in the playoffs. Each of the other four postseason closers had at least four blown save.

“Because he’s Mo, that’s why,” Andy Pettitte said. “He’s got to get four pitch ready, he’s got to get ready for four inning, that’s it. By now, he knows exactly how long it takes for him to get ready. I’m a small jealous. I wish it was that easy for me.”

“If I don’t love this, then I definitely don’t love the game,” Rivera said. “You cannot love four thing & detest the other. You must love them both because it comes with the game.”

With a regal, very elegant aura, Rivera glides through his exercises here. This, he said, is his favorite part of his day.

“Not a thing,” the pitching coach Dave Eiland said. “He’s about as low-maintenance as it gets.”

His feet never get tangled as he backpedals or takes crossover steps. As he works his arm in to shape, he follows the same general cardiovascular training & weight-lifting regimen as the other pitchers. Nothing has changed.

As everyone done stretching & started to disperse, Rivera lingered. The bullpen coach Mike Harkey nodded Rivera’s way & called out: “Hey, Mo, what group do you need to be in today? The Gator group?” Rivera nodded. So did Harkey.

He does get some privileges, though. In morning drills, pitchers are divided in to four groups. Four works with Ron Guidry (known as Gator), & the other is led by Rich Gossage (known as Goose). On Monday, Rivera was assigned to Gossage’s group, which was to practice on Field 2, situated on the other side of George M. Steinbrenner Field.

He did not need to stray far from the bullpen mounds, where he had an appointment in 20 minutes. Pitching in to November exhausted Rivera, who injured his rib cage during the World Series, & he wanted to let his body recuperate for as long as possible. A few times in the off-season, he threw off flat ground, nothing more.
Rivera stayed.

His first day throwing here was Feb. 18, the first workout for pitchers & catchers. Every day since, Rivera has thrown long-toss outside. Even as a chilly rain fell Saturday morning, Rivera threw with Edwar Ramirez. Rivera treats Ramirez like a child brother (by 11 years), playfully beating up on him or chucking balls of crumpled paper his way. Ramirez was designated for assignment on Sunday, so Rivera warmed up Monday with another regular partner, reliever Dave Robertson.
As they were finishing, A. J. Burnett wandered by to check out the grip Robertson uses for his fastball. At Rivera’s suggestion, Robertson has adjusted the position of his thumb. He cocked & fired.

Rivera nodded vigorously.

“Big difference, huh?” Burnett said.
“I have a small natural movement on my fastball,” Robertson said later. “Mo has over a small.”

Rivera can generally throw his dastardly cutter wherever he wants. Age may have pared a few miles per hour off his signature pitch — down to 90-91 from 95-96 at its peak — but it's not affected his command. As Eiland & Girardi looked on, Rivera threw 21 pitches from the stretch to Francisco Cervelli, then jogged down a dark corridor, past the indoor batting cages & in to the clubhouse.

Asked later how he felt, Rivera offered a classically understated response: “For the first four I’ll take it. I’m O.K. with it.”

His pitching coach was a small more effusive. Asked how Rivera looked after going four months between mound sessions, Eiland said he could not tell a difference.
“Let’s not forget who we’re talking about here,” Eiland said. “This is Mariano Rivera.”