Baseball's Chief Geek Picks 2010 Winners

If you are a Mets fan, never mind what Yogi Berra said. It is over & it ain't even started yet. The Amazin' Mets will come in third in the NL East, according to Bruce Bukiet, an associate professor of mathematical sciences & associate dean of the College of Science & Liberal Arts at the New Jersey Institute of Technology.

Derek Jeter, Albert Pujols & baseball's other greats have barely begun spring training, but a mathematician from New Jersey already knows what kind of season they'll have.

But that is not so bad: Bukiet predicts 82 wins for his beloved Metsies -- a solid improvement over the 70 the team won last year.

Bukiet bases his predictions on a mathematical model they developed in 2000, six that computes the probability of a team winning a game against another team with given hitters, bench, beginning pitcher, relievers & home field advantage. For this season, Bukiet has refined his algorithm slightly, incorporating a more realistic runner advancement model. Whatever that is.

In the American League, the New York Yankees should blow away the competition, winning in the East, & the Minnesota Twins will repeat as winners in the Central. But the AL West is close to call, with all three teams within 5 wins & the New york Rangers, Oakland Athletics & Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim expected to win 82, 81 & 80 games respectively. As for the wildcard, Bukiet says it is a tossup between the Tampa Bay Rays & Boston Red Sox from the East.

The professor claims to have beaten the odds in six of the seven years he is been using the model. According to his predictions, the Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals & Los Angeles Dodgers should all repeat as winners in the National League, with the Atlanta Braves taking the wild-card slot.

Bukiet predicts the following records for each team in the Major Leagues:

The Pittsburgh Pirates will repeat as the worst NL team with 66 wins, & the Cleveland Indians will win 67 for the most futile work in the AL.

AL East: Yankees – 103-59; Rays – 93-69; Red Sox – 92-70; Orioles – 71-91; Blue Jays – 70-92.

AL Central: Twins – 92-70; White Sox – 85-77; Tigers – 74-88; Royals – 72-90; Indians – 67-95.

AL West: Rangers – 82-80; A's – 81-81; Angels – 80-82; Mariners – 77-85.

NL East: Phillies – 90-72; Braves – 88-74; Mets – 82-80; Marlins – 76-86; Nationals – 72-90;

NL Central: Cards – 91-71; Cubs – 86-76; Brewers – 78-84; Reds – 74-88; Astros – 73-89; Pirates – 66-96.

NL West: Dodgers – 88-74; Diamondbacks – 85-77; Rockies – 84-78; Giants – 80-82; Padres – 77-85.

"I publish these numbers to promote the power & relevance of math," they says. "We've long had a problem convincing U.S. youngsters to embrace arithmetic in school. Studying how math applies to baseball demonstrates not only that math can be fun, but how it is a part of things people care about."

Bukiet also applies his mathematical modeling to betting, in particular for understanding baseball & cricket. They posts his analysis online at www.egrandslam.com.